Republicans are going to make border security and inflation their core 2026 message. Everyone knows this. But does it actually work with swing state voters? And what would make them take fiscal responsibility claims seriously?
I ran a study with six voters from swing states across the country. Asked them about border and inflation messaging, what proves fiscal seriousness, and the biggest mistakes Republican candidates make.
The results are fascinating and uncomfortable for both parties.
The Participants
Six swing state voters with varied backgrounds: a 33-year-old school counselor in Bend, Oregon who commutes by e-bike, a 39-year-old finance operations manager in San Jose with a Tesla and a young child, a 32-year-old chiropractic assistant in Houston who rides a motorcycle and plays guitar at church, a 45-year-old utilities field operations lead in Naperville, Illinois who is divorced with a dog, a 46-year-old product manager in Mount Pleasant, South Carolina who carpools and volunteers, and a 51-year-old electrical engineer in Gastonia, North Carolina who works on power grid protection.
Question 1: Does Border and Inflation Messaging Work?
Republicans often campaign on border security and fighting inflation. How effective is this messaging?
The consensus: the themes land, but the pitch is thin.
"The slogans get my attention, but I stop listening when it turns into chest-thumping with no nuts-and-bolts. I want receipts, dates, and someone on the hook if it slips." - Eduardo, 32, Houston
The San Jose operations manager was more blunt:
"The themes land with me, but the pitch is thin. Border security and prices hit my house every week. I tune out when it's just slogans. If they want me locked in, I need receipts: timelines, metrics, and how it's funded without gimmicks." - Ryan, 39, San Jose
What would make border messaging credible:
Mandatory E-Verify with phased timeline and real penalties
More asylum officers and judges with 60-90 day decision targets
90% port scanning at top crossings with weekly seizure reports
Humane standards: no family separation, medical protocols, third-party audits
Work visas tied to actual labor demand with portability
What would make inflation messaging credible:
PAYGO with real enforcement: no unfunded tax cuts or programs
Permitting reform with 2-year shot clock for energy and transmission
Housing supply incentives tied to actual zoning changes
Healthcare price transparency and PBM reform
Cut broad consumer tariffs that just tax families
Question 2: What Proves Fiscal Responsibility?
When a Republican candidate talks about government spending and fiscal responsibility, what do you want to hear? What would prove they're serious?
Every voter wanted the same thing: show your math or shut up.
"I want receipts, not slogans. If a Republican says 'fiscal responsibility,' I want to hear trade-offs, not fairy dust about growth paying for everything." - Kevin, 33, Bend OR
The Gastonia engineer put it in technical terms:
"Plain talk: I don't want slogans. I want the wiring diagram, the breaker schedule, and the test sheet. Give me a debt-to-GDP path with yearly milestones and a score that does not assume rosy growth." - Shawn, 51, Gastonia NC
What would prove fiscal seriousness:
Publish a line-item 10-year plan with CBO/GAO scoring
Name cuts in YOUR district and take the heat
Kill a donor-friendly tax break by name
Vote against your own party's unfunded bills
No shutdown theater: commit to automatic CR if needed
Post quarterly progress reports with automatic offsets if targets missed
Question 3: The Biggest Mistakes
What is the biggest mistake Republican candidates make when trying to win over voters like you?
The answer was unanimous: vibes over plans, and culture war instead of competence.
"They try to sell me a vibe, not a plan. If it fits on a hat, I assume it is fake. Performative toughness over competence. Scapegoats as policy. Magic math." - Kevin, 33, Bend OR
"Biggest mistake? They treat folks like me as a ratings demo, not neighbors. It turns into cable-war talking points, chest thumping on immigration, and fuzzy promises on cost of living. Lots of heat, no specs." - Gloria, 45, Naperville IL
Biggest mistakes identified:
Performative toughness over competence: chest-thumping, no implementation details
Scapegoats as policy: blaming immigrants, cities, universities without solutions
Magic math: unfunded cuts, hand-wavy offsets, no line items
Cable-news framing: culture skirmishes instead of housing, childcare, energy grids
Government-as-enemy rhetoric while asking voters to trust them to run it
What This Means for Republican Campaigns
Based on this research, here's what would actually work:
Border and inflation themes resonate, but need specific implementation plans.
Publish boring PDFs with costs, timelines, and accountability measures.
Drop the culture war entirely. It causes immediate disengagement.
Prove fiscal seriousness by naming your own sacred cows to cut.
Set measurable goals with public dashboards and automatic kill switches.
Think project manager energy, not cable news brawler.
The bottom line from these swing state voters? As the Mount Pleasant product manager put it: "Stop asking me to ignore what I saw the last few years, and bring a credible plan that makes my day-to-day life safer, freer, and less expensive. Do that, maybe I'll listen. Keep selling fear and vibes, and I'll keep walking."
Cheers,
Sophie